Τρίτη, 19 Ιουνίου 2012

A post-mortem analysis of the elections in Greece

There are several results that can be noted with regard to the second round of elections in Greece. But totally expected, at least for the most part.

As it was described in the previous post about the possible scenarios, it seems that Greece has ended up with the most unlikely outcome. That is, a pro-troika, pro-memorandum and pro-austerity coalitional government. This was not as unlikely as it seems, since the last ten days before the elections were literally saturated with terrorizing articles in the media, "black" advertisements from the parties and a holy war of "euro-or-drachma" declarations from the entire EU block.

The following diagram shows the current path of events after the elections. The new coalitional government is about to be announced later today (19/6) or tomorrow at the very latest (20/6). The red solid lines shows the elections, the sum of 48% by ND, PASOK and DHMAR that will form the new pro-troika coalition, as well as the two possible outcomes: either the same plan will now "work better" (somehow...), or the public outrage will no longer behave nicely and the situation will deteriorate rapidly within a few months.



The red dashed lines show the most probable evolution of things within the next few months, at least according to the results of the harsh austerity policies up to now. When things go down in flames again, much faster and much harder this time, Greece will have either new elections or a total collapse, perhaps extitting the Eurozone altogether.

Although the second (leftist) party SYRIZA managed to secure a huge increase of seats compared to the May 6th elections (first round), it is still one step behind forming an anti-troika government. Of course, all three to-be-government parties, i.e. ND, PASOK and DHMAR, have publicly announced that they will engage in string negotiations with the troika. This means that, in principle, the right "anti-troika" flow should be evident too, but every Greek knows for a fact, especially now after seeing what their leaders say (or don't say...) after the elections, that it was all cheap talk.

It is worth noting that, according to the statistics in the exit polls, SYRIZA's voters up to the age of 55 years where almost double than those of ND PASOK put together, while the exact opposite case was real for ages above 55. This effectively means the aged population was the critical factor of putting ND in the first place, as well as keeping the dismantled PASOK marginally at 10%. Moreover, the large percentage of no-voters (34%) abstained party due to the increased expenses of traveling again to their home towns, away from their working residences in the largest towns. In other words, the old, the pensioners, the ones living in small villages, traditionally the most conservative voters, where the ones that dictated the end result for the most part.

What is left to be seen is how fast unemployment will continue to increase downwards. It is now officially at 22% and some say it will hit 30% by the end of 2012. If this proves correct, then no elections result, no coalitional government, nothing will stand in the way of what is to come next in Greece.